Key Insights
- Oil prices remained above $100 as new geopolitical supply risks emerged.
- Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery sustained damage during the Sept. 20 drone attack.
- Russian refinery volume a network can handle without fees or delays exploding.">throughput had already fallen 30% year over year in June.
Oil prices stayed above $100 following a drone strike on Sept. 20 that damaged Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery, prompting markets to weigh fresh geopolitical supply threats as trading resumed. West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $101.06, while Brent hovered near $104.68.
While the Moscow strike increased pressure on an already constrained Russian refining network operating well below 2025 levels, initial crude gains were also tied to renewed Middle East tensions, complicating efforts to isolate the exact market impact of the refinery assault.
Oil Prices Today Hold Near $100 After Friday Pullback
Data from Trading Economics indicated that West Texas Intermediate crude finished Sept. 18 at $100.30 per barrel. Although the contract dipped 1.58% that session, it maintained an 18.85% gain over the past month and a 60.74% increase year over year.
Brent crude changed hands at $103.87, keeping the international marker positioned above West Texas Intermediate. Trading Economics anticipated crude would settle near $100.86 by the conclusion of the third quarter, aligning closely with Friday’s closing figures.
According to Reuters, the prior Friday retreat came on the back of diminishing worries regarding select Middle East supply disruptions. Brent settled at $104.87, and West Texas Intermediate concluded at $100.30. Even with the dip, valuations continued to highlight tight physical supplies across multiple extraction regions.
OIL Prices Face Fresh Risk From Moscow Refinery Strike
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that military forces successfully targeted a significant Russian oil facility overnight alongside a logistics installation within the Moscow region during the Sept. 20 operation, which utilized multiple long-range systems.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed that the Kapotnya refinery suffered structural harm during the drone assault. Russian officials additionally documented two fatalities elsewhere in the Moscow territory, with Reuters confirming Kapotnya as the targeted petroleum site.
Throughout 2024, the plant processed 11.6 million metric tons of crude, yielding 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel. The installation had previously encountered multiple strikes throughout 2026.
Gazprom Neft announced on Sept. 3 that the refinery had acquired equipment for a deep-processing complex designed to finalize its modernization initiative.
This most recent attack introduces additional supply uncertainties ahead of the subsequent trading session. Because comprehensive damage evaluations remained incomplete on Sunday, the ultimate effect on production volume stays uncertain.
Oil Prices Reflect Broader Russian Refining Pressure
International Energy Agency researchers David Martin and Talya Vatman highlighted mounting stress across the Russian refining infrastructure. Their Sept. 17 report estimated total installed Russian refining capacity at roughly 6.5 million barrels per day.
The agency observed that Russian refinery volume a network can handle without fees or delays exploding.">throughput slumped to 3.8 million barrels per day in June, representing a more than 20-year low and tracking approximately 30% under figures from the preceding year.
Estimates from the International Energy Agency indicate that gasoline output slid roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels, while diesel production tumbled nearly 30%, forcing Russian officials to implement restrictions on fuel exports across the country’s 32 major refineries.
Their findings revealed that a Russian refinery experienced an attack roughly every three days on average through the month of August, leaving only five major facilities completely unscathed by the end of that month.
Figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration pointed to tighter domestic crude reserves as well. Commercial crude stockpiles sat at 423.4 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 11, while Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories hovered around 285 million barrels.
Bitcoin Derivatives Stay Firm Despite Energy Risk
CoinMarketCap figures indicated Bitcoin traded near $80,464 on Sept. 20, marking a 24-hour gain of 0.68%. This performance signaled that cryptocurrency traders refrained from making widespread shifts toward defensive strategies during Sunday sessions.
Total crypto derivatives open interest hovered around $432.48 billion according to CoinMarketCap metrics. Liquidations over a 24-hour window reached roughly $249.85 million, with long liquidations outpacing short ones. A separate market indicator showed Bitcoin derivatives open interest sitting near $89.05 billion.
Research from JPMorgan injected further caution into energy markets. According to Reuters on Sept. 17, the financial institution lacked a definitive baseline outlook, calculating Brent’s fair value close to $90 while actual prices stayed above $100.
The bank noted that prevailing prices accounted for the threat of additional supply losses beyond current disruptions. JPMorgan estimated that crude and product inventories dropped by 555 million barrels, with demand tracking 4.4 million barrels per day below the prior year.
The next true test for commodities arrives with the opening of trading following the Sept. 20 strike. Market participants will evaluate Kapotnya’s structural condition, Russian fuel production figures, and developments in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to publish its weekly U.S. petroleum report on Sept. 23, updating inventories for crude, gasoline, distillates, and strategic reserves.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why are oil prices staying above $100?
Prices remain elevated due to geopolitical supply risks, a drone attack on Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery, and ongoing Middle East tensions. - How did the drone strike impact the Kapotnya refinery?
The facility sustained structural damage during the Sept. 20 attack, introducing fresh uncertainty to Russian fuel production and export capacity. - What is the current state of Russian refinery throughput?
Russian refinery throughput fell to 3.8 million barrels per day in June—about 30% below the previous year—marking a 20-year low. - When will official U.S. petroleum inventory data be released?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly petroleum report on Sept. 23 to update domestic inventory levels.
