جي بي مورغان: سعر بيتكوين قد يجد دعماً مع تراجع التحوط لصندوق IBIT

رؤى رئيسية:

• سعر البيتكوين could gain relative مستويات الدعم if investors unwind IBIT hedges while keeping their underlying exposure.
• Gold ETFs recovered from outflows earlier in 2026, while البيتكوين ETFs recovered only about half, JPMorgan says.
• IBIT short interest and put-to-call positioning show heavier downside protection than GLD.

JPMorgan states that the البيتكوين price might find stronger relative مستويات الدعم than gold if investors decide to unwind their hedges while holding onto their underlying exposure. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team of analysts highlight a distinct positioning gap between gold and البيتكوين funds. While gold التبادل-traded funds have fully bounced back from earlier 2026 outflows, البيتكوين التبادل-traded funds have only recovered roughly half of theirs.

Furthermore, BlackRock’s IBIT maintains near-record short interest, whereas short interest for SPDR Gold Shares remains below historical averages. Options market positioning reflects a similar divergence, as IBIT displays a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD. This exact gap forms the foundation of the bank’s relative positioning outlook.

Bitcoin Price Setup Reflects Heavier ETF Hedging

JPMorgan’s analysis focuses on the methods investors use to safeguard their current BTC ETF holdings. A market participant might own spot ETF shares while simultaneously shorting that same fund or related assets, or they might buy put options to cap potential losses during market downturns.

Such positions do not indicate that investors have abandoned Bitcoin; rather, they signal that certain holders desire protection against downward price movements. This distinction becomes vital for the Bitcoin price if market sentiment eventually turns positive.

Covering a short position requires an investor to buy back borrowed shares. Such a transaction can stimulate buying pressure even when the original long holding remains entirely untouched. Consequently, unwinding a hedge can bolster prices without necessarily signaling a brand-new long-term allocation.

Put options function differently. When market participants decrease their put protection, market makers might alter their individual hedges, rendering the direct impact on spot demand less pronounced. Reduced options protection does not equate to fresh inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin ETF Recovery Still Trails Gold ETF Demand

According to JPMorgan, both gold and Bitcoin ETFs drew inflows following the late July Federal Reserve meeting. This movement mirrored a resurgence in the debasement trade, as investors frequently gravitate toward scarce assets amid mounting currency or inflation worries.

Demand for gold ETFs has rebounded at a quicker pace. JPMorgan notes that gold funds have successfully wiped out all outflows registered earlier in the year, whereas Bitcoin ETF products have only recouped about half of those prior losses.

That disparity leaves gold ahead in flow recovery. Even so, JPMorgan notes that Bitcoin prices feature more robust defensive positioning underneath the headline figures, with IBIT short interest hovering near yearly highs while GLD short interest stays under its historical norm.

The options market displays a comparable trend, as IBIT features a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD. This indicates that market participants rely on heavier downside protection for BTC than for the primary gold ETF.

Bitcoin Price Support Depends on Positioning Shift

The Bitcoin price would not automatically climb simply because hedging activities decline. JPMorgan’s scenario relies on the assumption that investors strip away their protection while keeping their underlying BTC exposure intact. Liquidating both the hedge and the long position simultaneously would trigger a very different market reaction.

Macroeconomic variables can also overshadow ETF positioning. Escalating real yields can diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, while a stronger US dollar can weigh heavily on both gold and Bitcoin. JPMorgan mentions that the debasement trade has recently cooled off as inflation-adjusted bond yields have ticked upward.

The bank’s 2026 outlook for BTC has likewise shifted alongside broader market conditions. Earlier in the year, the analysis team calculated Bitcoin production costs around $77,000, while also sustaining a substantially higher long-term valuation adjusted for volatility via comparisons with gold.

Data from SoSoValue reveals that Bitcoin ETF demand grew stronger throughout most of August before fading once more in September. Weekly metrics demonstrate net inflows totaling roughly $4.23 billion spanning from July 31 through September 4, despite the timeframe capturing a $61.53 million outflow post-Fed meeting and an additional $389.71 million weekly outflow in mid-August.

Momentum subsequently shifted backward, with BTC ETFs recording roughly $462.73 million in net outflows during the week ending September 11. Figures from September 16 registered another $586.27 million in net withdrawals. These data points emphasize that ETF demand has fluctuated rather than moving in a single direction, even though institutional exposure remains significant.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ETF positioning, options activity and analyst estimates do not guarantee future Bitcoin price performance.