Key Insights:
- Bitcoin hovers around $77,255 while traders prepare for the Fed’s Wednesday rate-hike decision.
- August core CPI data pushed September hike expectations from 70% up to nearly 90%.
- Weekly exponential moving average resistance and falling wedge support define the current technical landscape for BTC.
As traders evaluate Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate-hike announcement and a potential bearish weekly close, Bitcoin’s price remains steady near $77,255.91. According to CoinGecko, the asset is down 0.1%, staying within a daily band of $76,515.84 to $77,377.37.
Bitcoin maintains a market capitalization of $1.552 trillion alongside $16.024 billion in trading volume. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has dropped 3%, and it shows a 2.1% loss on a 14-day timeline.
Conversely, Bitcoin shows a 23.2% monthly gain, although its 12-month return remains down by 33.4%. This recent downward pressure on the token coincides with growing anticipation of stricter U.S. monetary policy and higher borrowing expenses.
Bitcoin Price Tests Two Technical Structures
Given this market behavior, analyst Rekt Capital warns that BTC faces the risk of a weekly close underneath its 50-week exponential moving average. He notes that this bearish signal would require confirmation through a subsequent rejection that turns the moving average into a resistance level.
Drawing comparisons, he points to Bitcoin’s earlier interaction with the 21-week EMA, which initially served as a floor. After losing that threshold, the asset slid from the mid-$70,000 range down into the low-$60,000s.
Rekt Capital points out that both moving averages generally act as support during healthy bull markets, viewing persistent breakdowns at these zones as an indication that a true bull cycle has not yet commenced.
Simultaneously, analyst The Cryptomist is monitoring Bitcoin through a shorter four-hour lens following a breakout above a falling wedge. BTC is currently retesting the boundaries of this wedge between $76,500 and $77,000, with $77,800 acting as the initial rebound marker.
A descending trendline then introduces overhead resistance from $79,400 to $80,000. The analyst anticipates a brief bounce into that ceiling before selling pressure returns, projecting a possible move toward $75,000 and subsequent support between $73,500 and $74,000.
The analyst ties this expected volatility to CLARITY Act updates before forecasting a consolidation phase near $73,500. The accompanying chart outlines a subsequent recovery toward $81,000, which remains underneath the earlier peak of $82,000 displayed in the technical setup.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise After August Inflation
The Federal Open Market Committee is holding meetings on September 15 and 16, with policymakers set to publicize their decision on Wednesday. August core CPI increased by 0.3% over July, topping the predicted 0.2%. That inflation print pushed expectations for a September hike from 70% toward 90%.
Data from CME FedWatch estimated the likelihood around 87%, indicating that investors favored a 25-basis-point increase. Financial markets assigned a 97% chance to at least one rate hike happening before the year concludes. Rather than reflecting a 97% probability of a second increase, futures traders have priced in a minimum of two rate increases for 2026 by year-end.
Bitcoin’s valuation could encounter further headwinds as 10 out of 12 FOMC voting members supported the upcoming quarter-point adjustment, which has been characterized as an emergency step previously cleared by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
However, the central bank officially marks September 15–16 on its calendar as a standard gathering, and no official ruling appears on the public Fed agenda ahead of Wednesday’s scheduled announcement.
Bitcoin Price Faces Rate-Hike Pressure as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Shift Outlooks
Significantly, JPMorgan has revised its monetary policy expectations, now forecasting quarter-point hikes in both September and December. Goldman Sachs also retracted its previous stance expecting no changes in September, now anticipating a 25-basis-point lift. Even so, Goldman does not view additional rate adjustments as its baseline scenario beyond September.
Political voices are pushing in the opposite direction as administration officials maintain their backing for relaxed borrowing terms. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett called on Warsh to take the timing around the November midterm elections into account.
Hassett noted that monetary tightenings ahead of elections have happened only a few times since 1913, emphasizing that staying out of the electoral process remains a cornerstone of central bank independence.
Nevertheless, Hassett affirmed that the White House will stand behind whatever conclusion the Federal Reserve reaches. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump expressed a desire for the United States to claim the lowest interest rates globally, mentioning he was uncertain whether officials would enact a hike on Wednesday.
He argued that America’s robust credit standing justifies cheaper borrowing costs regardless of traditional central bank equations. Trump nominated Warsh while consistently advocating for loose monetary policy, though Warsh continues to prioritize subduing inflation.
FAQ
- What is the current trading price of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is trading near $77,255.91, holding steady ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve announcements. - Why are rate-hike expectations rising?
Higher-than-expected August core inflation data pushed expectations for a September rate hike from 70% toward 90%. - What are analysts saying about Bitcoin’s technical outlook?
Analysts like Rekt Capital and The Cryptomist note that BTC risks breaking key moving averages while testing wedge support levels between $76,500 and $77,000. - How are major banks reacting to the Fed’s stance?
Institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have shifted their outlooks to project 25-basis-point rate increases.
