Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price regained a long-term NUPL trend level after 317 days.
- Liquidity remained concentrated around $73,000-$75,000 and $78,000-$80,000.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive sessions of inflows.
Bitcoin hovered near $76,900 on August 23 following a four-day market recovery that enhanced long-term profitability indicators. According to CoinMarketCap statistics, the leading cryptocurrency traded around $76,898, backed by a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $42.53 billion. This upward movement followed a sharp rally that drove a vital on-chain metric past its yearly moving average.
The rebound gained significance because Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric turned positive relative to its long-term trend. Burak Kesmeci, a contributor at CryptoQuant, shared on X that the metric crossed above its 365-day moving average following a 317-day hiatus. While this shift reinforced the bullish outlook, nearby liquidity clusters still posed potential pullback risks.
Bitcoin Price Holds Gains After Four-Day Rally
During the 24-hour observation window, Bitcoin traded within a range of $76,526 and $78,801. Even with this recent bounce, the asset remained below its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,198.
CoinMarketCap reported Bitcoin’s market capitalization at $1.54 trillion during the session. With a circulating supply resting near 20.07 million BTC, Bitcoin retained its position as the top cryptocurrency by market cap.
Kesmeci noted that Bitcoin had surged roughly 26% over the course of four days preceding his analysis. He pointed out that the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss ratio climbed from 0.16 to 0.32 during this timeframe, while its 365-day moving average hovered around 0.31, pushing the current reading just above the baseline trend.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric measures aggregate unrealized profits and losses across the entire base of Bitcoin holders. Positive values reflect collective unrealized gains, whereas negative values point to aggregate unrealized losses.
Rather than treating the crossover as an immediate price objective, Kesmeci viewed it as a signal of a potential trend reversal. He emphasized that maintaining readings above the annual average could fuel ongoing upward momentum.
Bitcoin Price Structure Points to Nearby Retest Risk
Market trader Killa drew comparisons between the latest price surge and Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022 cycle low. He recalled how that historical move rallied from roughly $16,000 to $25,000 before experiencing a retracement toward $19,000.
Applying a similar Fibonacci retracement strategy to the current price impulse, Killa identified a potential local pullback zone spanning between $70,000 and $73,000.
This historical parallel does not guarantee that Bitcoin will duplicate its 2022 recovery trajectory. Instead, it serves as a structural guide regarding how deep a correction might unfold following a strong impulse wave. A milder pullback would retain a greater portion of recent gains before downward pressure tests lower bids.
This perspective aligned with independent liquidity research shared by That Martini Guy, who pinpointed major downside liquidity pools situated between $73,000–$75,000 and $69,000–$71,000.
He also highlighted a compact liquidity cluster positioned around the $78,000–$80,000 threshold, indicating that market participants are navigating competing liquidity zones both above and below current valuations.
In addition, well-known analyst Ted Pillows noted a minor liquidity concentration near $75,400, with much denser liquidity pools resting above it in the $78,000–$80,000 bracket.
While these clusters do not ensure specific directional outcomes, they outline regions where leveraged positions and resting orders can trigger heightened short-term volatility.
ETF Demand Adds Institutional Support
Figures from Farside Investors revealed that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $307.5 million in net inflows on August 21. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $239.3 million to this total, while Fidelity’s FBTC added $30.2 million.
This August 21 inflow came on the heels of $606.3 million collected on August 20 and $517.2 million on August 19, demonstrating that institutional demand accelerated in tandem with Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
Between August 18 and August 21, Farside logged approximately $1.62 billion in cumulative net inflows. This four-session streak of consecutive inflows bolstered the case that active spot demand supported the broader price recovery.
Ted Pillows also pointed to sustained ETF accumulation alongside a strengthening daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator as catalysts that could pave the way for a run toward $90,000.
Even so, this target remains conditional rather than guaranteed, as Bitcoin was trading roughly 14.30% beneath the $90,000 mark based on recent CoinMarketCap pricing.
Bitcoin Price Faces $80K Before Any $90K Attempt
The immediate technical hurdle for the cryptocurrency is the $78,000–$80,000 liquidity band highlighted by multiple market commentators. A decisive, sustained breakout above this zone would clear a path toward the psychological $90,000 milestone.
Conversely, if the asset fails to defend the mid-$70,000 territory, focus will shift toward lower liquidity pockets situated around $73,000–$75,000 and $69,000–$71,000, as mapped by That Martini Guy.
Kesmeci’s on-chain model establishes another vital prerequisite for the ongoing bull case: the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric must hold above its 365-day moving average to keep the positive trend valid.
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s immediate test will be its price action around the $78,000–$80,000 resistance area, with ETF flow statistics and NUPL metrics offering confirmation if buyers maintain dominance.
FAQ
- What is Bitcoin’s NUPL and why is it important? Net Unrealized Profit and Loss measures aggregate gains and losses of holders, signaling trend shifts when crossing key averages.
- What liquidity ranges are critical for Bitcoin? Traders are closely watching $73,000–$75,000 and $78,000–$80,000 for potential volatility and price reactions.
- Are spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows? Yes, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $1.62 billion.
- Is Bitcoin guaranteed to reach $90,000? No, the $90,000 target is conditional and depends on breaking resistance levels and sustaining bullish indicators.
