बिटकॉइन आउटलुक: गोल्डन क्रॉस और फेडरल रिजर्व की दर में वृद्धि के बीच मुकाबला

मुख्य बातें:

• बिटकॉइन price गोल्डन क्रॉस signals to further gains, but only 3 of 12 past crosses were successful in the long run.
• Odds of a Fed rate hike rose to 60%, creating a short-term downside risk for बिटकॉइन.

On Thursday, बिटकॉइन changed hands near $78,000, registering a daily decline and failing to secure a weekly close above $80,000 for the second straight week. This recent upward momentum developed after the 50-day moving average on BTC’s daily chart crossed above the 200-day moving average.

Referred to as a golden cross, this formation stands out as one of the most closely followed technical charts influencing बिटकॉइन की कीमत forecasts. Significantly, this marks the first occurrence of the pattern since November 2025.

Why Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Signal Matters

A golden cross materializes when an asset’s short-term moving average climbs above its long-term counterpart, indicating that recent buying pressure has outpaced historical trends.

Since 2012, BTC has formed 12 such crossovers, though the indicator boasts a mixed performance record. Out of the 12 events, only three maintained validity across an entire year, delivering an average yield of 250% over that timeframe.

Meanwhile, the remaining nine instances yielded an average increase of about 24.9%. Furthermore, historical reviews show the pattern has produced roughly three false breakouts, a vulnerability that tempers complete reliance on the setup for बिटकॉइन price predictions.

An additional metric reinforcing the बुलिश outlook for Bitcoin involves the market share of USDT relative to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Hovering near 8.45%, this dominance metric approaches a potential reversal zone aligned with its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Typically, rising USDT dominance reflects capital rotating away from Bitcoin and ऑल्टकॉइन्स into स्टेबलकॉइन्स. Conversely, a drop in stablecoin share signals that capital is flowing back into digital assets, providing बुलिश confirmation that complements the golden cross pattern.

Rate Hike Odds Challenge the Bitcoin Price Prediction

These positive technical indicators clash with prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Throughout the week, the 10-year DAO नियंत्रित और खर्च करता है।">Treasury yield hovered around 4.8%, accompanied by robust August nonfarm payrolls that added 162,000 jobs—well above the projected 55,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

The stronger employment numbers heightened expectations for an interest rate hike during the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting, introducing fresh uncertainty to Bitcoin price projections. Data from the FedWatch tool indicates that market analysts bumped the probability of a 25-basis-point increase up to approximately 60%, compared to roughly 49% previously.

Research from UBS also estimated the likelihood at 60%, noting that the latest employment report marked the largest monthly payroll expansion since March.

Expectations surrounding monetary tightening have fluctuated notably in recent weeks. Early September saw probabilities sitting near 50% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocated for patience prior to enacting further rate increases.

Those odds subsequently surged as high as 64% following hawkish commentary from Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, with Friday’s strong payroll data pushing rate-hike probabilities upward once more.

Weighing Both Signals for a Bitcoin Price Prediction

Producer Price Index figures released on Thursday showed core PPI rising 0.2% on a monthly basis, coming in underneath the anticipated 0.3% gain. Headline PPI advanced 0.4%, climbing from 0.1% and meeting expectations for an accelerated pace.

Initial jobless claims totaled 206,000, aligning closely with the सहमति estimate of 205,000. As PPI figures accelerated, the price of BTC retreated toward the $77,000 सपोर्ट level. Attention now turns to Friday’s Consumer Price Index publication, which serves as the final major inflation report capable of swaying the Fed’s upcoming interest rate determination.

Historically, the golden cross has yielded mixed outcomes, acting as a dependable long-term indicator in only three out of 12 instances. Furthermore, the pullback in Bitcoin’s price toward $77,000 demonstrates that favorable technical charts have yet to overpower broader macroeconomic headwinds.

Whether the prevailing signal sparks a lasting recovery or results in a bull trap hinges heavily on Friday’s CPI data and its influence on the central bank’s next monetary policy move, both of which will dictate the trajectory of Bitcoin price predictions.

At present, the technical outlook stays constructive. Nevertheless, with Bitcoin hovering near a vital सपोर्ट threshold, its upcoming direction relies heavily on forthcoming economic reports.

अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

• What is a golden cross for Bitcoin? A golden cross happens when the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day moving average, signaling potential long-term बुलिश मोमेंटम को प्रभावित कर सकती है।
• How reliable is Bitcoin’s golden cross historically? Out of 12 past occurrences since 2012, only 3 crosses remained valid for a full year, while generating mixed outcomes overall.
• Why are Fed rate hikes affecting Bitcoin? Stronger macroeconomic data has raised rate-hike expectations to 60%, creating short-term downside pressure for risk assets like Bitcoin.
• What key data will drive the next Bitcoin price move? Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions will heavily influence BTC’s direction.