主要洞察：
- 比特币’s price stayed under $80,000 as the DTMM reading hovered between the accumulation and expansion tiers.
- 七天内记录的已实现利润接近 10 亿美元，其中短期持有者是获利回吐的主力。
- BTC CVD metrics highlighted persistent retail selling accompanied by rising net accumulation from whales.
Bitcoin’s price remained below $80,000, with on-chain metrics pointing to a market caught in the balance between accumulation and expansion. The DTMM indicator registered at 2.03, alongside climbing realized profits and retail selling pressure. Meanwhile, sustained whale demand helped stabilize the market temporarily as traders awaited a decisive move in the BTC price.
机构资金与徘徊不前的积累期
比特币易手价为 78,419 美元，Delta Thermo Market Multiple（三角热力市场倍数）为 2.03，使市场处于 1.5 倍的积累区和 2.5 倍的扩张区之间。根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，这一指标表明市场尚未进入强劲的扩张周期，但已经超越了与较重积累相关的水平。
The standing of this indicator was echoed by other market metrics. The Short Term Holder realized price was logged at $69,371, offering traders a baseline beneath the current BTC price. Its MVRV ratio of 1.13 signaled that this cohort retained profits, though the market lacked the widespread euphoria readings typically observed in aggressive rallies.
资金费率同样保持在 0.0056 附近的温和水平，这意味着市场参与者避免使用高杠杆来单向操纵价格。
Simultaneously, the Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative across daily and hourly intervals, indicating subdued spot buying interest originating from the United States. Combined, these factors kept 比特币 locked in a consolidation pattern while broader capital trends remained ambiguous.
这些数据未能呈现出明确的突破信号。相反，它们描绘了一个在过渡到新阶段之前、正等待更强流动性注入的市场。
对于机构资金而言，美国现货需求的匮乏继续充当主要的上方阻力。与此同时，持续的巨鲸积累在当前估值水平附近提供了一个缓冲垫。
已实现利润对比特币价格施加压力
The value of 比特币 also experienced an uptick in realized profits as the asset pushed toward the $80,000 threshold. Insights published by Darkfost revealed that weekly average net realized profits hit a 2026 high, with nearly $1 billion locked in throughout the prior week.
Short-term market participants surfaced as the primary group cashing out. Their distribution meant that select investors were securing profits as BTC neared the psychological $80,000 level. Even so, this selling failed to drive 比特币 down aggressively because offsetting demand absorbed the pressure.
维持这种平衡对于比特币的估值至关重要。如果买方需求继续与已实现利润回吐相匹配，该资产就能维持当前的交易通道。相反，如果需求走软而抛压加剧，比特币的下行压力可能会变得明显。因此，数据表明，这是一个获得支撑但仍易受买卖动态变化影响的市场。
BTC 价格 CVD 显示散户抛售而巨鲸买入
The BTC CVD metric offered an alternative perspective on market sentiment. Information highlighted by CW demonstrated continuous distribution by retail traders, designated as the orange group. Yet, the exact same evaluation showed that large-scale whales were not mirroring this sell-off.
Instead, whales steadily escalated their net purchases according to the figures. Furthermore, the assessment flagged no major sell walls while whale accumulation persisted. This generated a divide between smaller retail investors and major stakeholders, with retail accounts offloading holdings while whales expanded their positions.
This divergence holds significance since the market was already positioned between the DTMM accumulation and expansion levels. Bitcoin’s price lacked sufficient buying volume to push the gauge past 2.5x, yet whale interest helped avert a deeper correction.
展望未来，BTC接下来的方向性走势可能取决于这种持续的需求是否足够强劲，能够消化额外的已实现利润和散户抛压。
常见问题
- 为什么比特币难以突破80,000美元？
由于短期持有者已实现利润回吐增加、美国现货需求疲软以及持续的散户抛压，比特币的上涨动能已经停滞。 - 什么是Delta热力市场倍数（DTMM）？
DTMM是一个链上指标，有助于判断市场周期，目前处于积累区（1.5倍）和扩张区（2.5倍）之间。 - Are institutional investors currently buying Bitcoin?
机构需求似乎较为低迷，Coinbase溢价指数为负表明美国现货买盘疲软。 - 在散户抛售的同时，巨鲸在做什么？
在散户积极抛售的同时，链上CVD数据显示巨鲸正在悄悄增加比特币的净买入量。
